Donald Trump: 45. & 47. Präsident der USA

A Growing Problem

He is far from the only American farmer begging for help. John Hollay is the senior director of government relations for the United Fresh Produce Association, a Washington, D.C., lobbying group that represents more than 1,000 companies spanning the entire spectrum of produce production and sales, from retail giants such as Walmart and Kroger to small farmers like Serrano. Hollay told me that the shortage of labor was the "No. 1 issue" members talked about at the group's annual convention last fall.

The scarcity of workers began cutting into farmers' earnings within a few years of the end of the recent recession-costing them an estimated $1.3 billion in lost income in 2012, the last year for which figures have been compiled. And Hollay insists the problem has grown worse since. "It's a shame," he said. "We have the crops but not enough workers to harvest them. It should be a crime-the idea that we would let this happen in a nation with our agricultural resources." He personally feels that the issue goes beyond the businesses he represents. "Food insecurity is a national security threat. And that is not something I say lightly. A country that can't provide food for its people is simply not secure."

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All types of farms and ranches are facing labor shortages, but the problem is critical in the fruit and vegetable sector where farmers are more dependent on hand-harvesting," said Vincent "Zippy" Duvall, the president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents 6 million farmers from all over the country. Every single one of the nation's 10 most popular fruits-including apples, table grapes, strawberries and oranges-must be picked by hand. The same applies to seven of the top 10 vegetables we eat. (See "How Labor Shortages Could Impact Your Plate" below) Without human harvesters, the vegetable sections of supermarkets would offer only potatoes, carrots, leaf lettuce and salad mix. There would be no tomatoes, onions, head lettuce, bell peppers or cucumbers. And that's just to name a few.

What Peter does know, however, is that without foreign-born workers, his dairy could not stay afloat. Americans are understandably reluctant to perform dirty, dangerous and demanding work — what economists call 3-D jobs — as long as they have better alternatives. Unemployment in southern Idaho has averaged 3.4 percent for a decade; wages for entry-level workers on Peter’s farm are competitive with those for cashiers at fast-food franchises. He can’t pay much more, he insists, and still break even.

Milk has historically held a special place in America’s food policy, Novakovic told me, because it is widely regarded as an essential source of calcium, fat and protein for children. “This was a special food, a food that was seen as particularly valuable and important,” he said. Americans have taken it for granted for generations that milk is cheap and plentiful. Few of them realize that the current political climate around the issue of undocumented immigrants could put that longstanding privilege in danger.

When I mentioned to Pete Wiersma, the president of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association and no relation to Peter, that I’d read a study predicting that the price of milk would nearly double if foreign-born workers were removed from the industry, he shook his head.

“I don’t think there would be milk,” Wiersma said. “I just don’t think we could get it done.”

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“I don’t think anyone really thinks that this is going to help Idaho,” Philip Watson, an economist at the University of Idaho’s College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, told me when we discussed these legislative efforts. “There’s just this idea that this is what we have to be doing because it’s the right thing to do.”

He compared the bills floated by hard-right conservatives in Idaho with “cap and invest” legislation passed in Washington State that effectively raised gas prices while curbing carbon emissions. These were policies that aligned with many voters’ feelings — about climate change, about immigration — but hurt state businesses. In Idaho, he said, the economic effects would be more painful because dairy has become such a big part of the state’s economy. Idaho is now the third-largest dairy producer in the United States.

According to studies done by Watson and his colleague Hernan Tejeda, the dairy industry brought $10.7 billion into Idaho in 2020. That number includes revenue generated not only by milk producers like Peter but also by milk processors. The state’s best-known processing plant belongs to the Greek yogurt maker Chobani, but its largest is owned by Glanbia, which makes the kind of nonbrand cheese used by Domino’s and Pizza Hut. Idaho milk is also the basis of generic cheese sold in value stores like Walmart.

In a 2012 study, Watson estimated that if Idaho cut its supply of foreign-born, less-educated labor by 50 percent, the state’s G.D.P. would fall by $905 million. In 2024, he told me, that number would only be bigger. The dairy industry generated about $155 million in state and local tax revenue in 2020, he noted, compared with $90 million in 2012. Idaho’s dairy farms may employ only 4,400 people, Watson and Tejeda have found, but those farms enable 30,600 other jobs in milk processing and other supporting businesses. If the industry departed, it would affect Idaho broadly, including schools and restaurants across the state.

The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that, in total, U.S. agriculture needs 1.5 to 2 million hired workers each year. Farmers have been struggling to fill these positions; in 2019, 56% of California farmers reported being unable to find all the workers they needed over the last five years.

This is partly because, even when wages and benefits are increased, there are still not enough U.S. citizens applying. The current agricultural workforce is also aging, requiring younger workers to replace them. Immigrants have filled these shortfalls in the workforce for decades, but in recent years, fewer immigrants are coming to the U.S. to work in agriculture, a result of current U.S. immigration policy and rising incomes in Mexico.

The labor shortage puts American agriculture at a competitive disadvantage. American growers’ inability to find dependable sources of labor is a major reason for the significant increase in the amount of fresh fruit and vegetables that are imported into the U.S, costing billions in sales and tens of thousands of jobs. Without workers, crops wither in the fields, contributing to food waste and millions of dollars in lost production.