Unruhen in der Ukraine - reloaded
13.03.2015 um 17:20@smokingun
https://www.pism.pl/files/?id_plik=16473
Und zu mindestens die Vertreter Polens haben von der Drohenden Abspaltung der Krim gewusst als sie den Vertrag zur Regulierung der Krise vom 21. Februar unterzeichneten. Sie wussten dass wenn der Vertrag gebrochen werden würde, dass die Krim sich sofort abspalten würde.
Und trotzdem haben sie den Bruch dieses Abkommens und die Machtergreifung der Opposition nicht verurteilt. Dann muss man sich wohl erst recht nicht wundern, wenn die Krim sich tatsächlich abspaltet. Oder haben sie gedacht dass die Krimregierung blufft?
wohl kaum. weiter...
Es war absehbar und vermeidbar gewesen. Die Schuld dafür trägt der jenige, der den Putsch in Kiew organisiert hat. Und der jenige, der ihn stillschweigend unterstützte.
der Vollständigkeitshalber der Rest:
ich meine dass Parlament der Krim welches am 19. Februar die Durchführung des Referendums über den Status der Krim sowie die Rolle Russlands dabei beschlossen hatte.smokingun schrieb:du meinst wohl Konstantinow der nach Moskau flog ?
SIMFEROPOL (QHA) 19 February 2014 - Crimean Parliament adopted a decree on holding Ukrainian referendum on Ukraine’s government.Die Sezessionsinitiative der Krimregierung lässt sich auch noch viel weiter zurückverfolgen als die reise Konstantitows nach Moskau.
As reported earlier MP of Crimea Vladimir Klychnikov made suggestions to amend constitutions of Ukraine and Crimea and conduct an all-Crimean poll on the status of Crimea.
Klychnikov also suggested to appeal to the President and the legislative assembly of the Russian Federation to be the guarantors of inviolability of the status of Crimean autonomy and rights and freedoms of Crimean residents.
SIMFEROPOL. Jan 22 (Interfax) - Crimean parliamentarians have blamed opposition leaders for the bloodshed in Kyiv, saying they will not give Crimea to extremists and neo-Nazis who are looking to seize power in the country.Polish institute of international affairs wusste schon am 17. Februar über die Drohende Abspaltung der Krim und die Gründe dafür genauestens bescheid und gab Empfehlungen raus wie man es vielleicht vermeiden könnte.
"The political crisis, the formal pretext for which there was a pause in Ukraine's European integration, has developed into armed resistance and street fights. Hundreds of people have been hurt and, unfortunately, some people have been killed. The price for the power ambitions of a bunch of political saboteurs - Klitschko, Yatsenyuk, and Tyagnibok - is too high. They have crossed the line by provoking bloodshed, using the interests of the people of Ukraine as a cover and pretending to act on their behalf," Supreme Council of Crimea said in statement on the political situation in Ukraine adopted at its emergency session. Seventy-eight of the 81 deputies voted for the statement.
The statement says European officials who previously condemned the activities of the all-Ukrainian association Svoboda and expressed concerns about the arrival of nationalists in the Ukrainian parliament "have now united in unnatural 'political love' with Ukrainian neo-Nazis and their allies to 'be friends' against Russia."
"On behalf of the people of Crimea who elected us, we are saying that we will not give Crimea to extremists and neo-Nazis who are looking to seize power in Ukraine by dividing the country! The people of Crimea will never engage in illegitimate elections, will never recognize their results, and will not live in a 'Bandera' Ukraine! We are full of determination to defend the historical choice that was made at a referendum on the issue of the restoration of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea 23 years ago," the statement says.
Russian politicians in Crimea have expressed dissatisfaction with the Ukrainian government’s response to the EuroMaidan protests. They believe that this response has been too weak, and have put pressure on the government in Kyiv in order to coerce it into using violent measures against the opposition. This would end the government’s ability to continue dialogue with the European Union. At the same time, the Crimean politicians’ support for President Viktor Yanukovych is conditional. They do not exclude separatist activity in the event of a compromise between the government and the opposition. The European Union should oppose such processes, increase its activity on the peninsula, and build a more positive image.Die Krimregierung hat also schon Ende Januar eine klare Position bezogen. Im Fall eines Staatsstreichs würde die Krim es nicht mittragen.
After the government of Mykola Azarov halted preparations for the signing by Ukraine Association Agreement with the EU, the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (ARC) passed a resolution in support of the decision. On 2 December 2013, after the start of mass anti-government protests in Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine, deputies of the Crimean Supreme Council called on President Victor Yanukovych to declare a state of emergency and end “lawlessness and anarchy” in the capital. The paramilitary organisation “Sobol”, representing the Crimean Russians, announced the launch of patrols at the entrance to the peninsula and at Crimean railway and bus stations, in order to stop the “fascist elements” (as they call the supporters of EuroMaidan).
Andrei Klichnikov, deputy of the ARC parliament, asked the police to pay particular attention to people not speaking Russian, which was an allusion to the alleged influx into the peninsula of Ukrainian speaking opposition activists.
The next stage of the radicalisation of politics in the ARC occurred on the Day of Unity, 22 January, which is a national holiday commemorating the reunification of eastern and western Ukraine in 1919. The Crimean deputies released a statement in which they put responsibility for the escalation of violence during the protests in Kyiv on the opposition and their supposed European and American principals. They declared that, if the government in Kyiv accepted the call for early elections, it would be ignored by the Crimean authorities.
Und zu mindestens die Vertreter Polens haben von der Drohenden Abspaltung der Krim gewusst als sie den Vertrag zur Regulierung der Krise vom 21. Februar unterzeichneten. Sie wussten dass wenn der Vertrag gebrochen werden würde, dass die Krim sich sofort abspalten würde.
Und trotzdem haben sie den Bruch dieses Abkommens und die Machtergreifung der Opposition nicht verurteilt. Dann muss man sich wohl erst recht nicht wundern, wenn die Krim sich tatsächlich abspaltet. Oder haben sie gedacht dass die Krimregierung blufft?
wohl kaum. weiter...
In the response to a resolution to ban the ruling Party of Regions by the boards of several oblasts of western Ukraine, the Crimean parliament attempted to outlaw the nationalist Svoboda Party in ARC. In the discourse of Crimean politicians and local media, the whole opposition is often is identified with Svoboda. This is because it fits better than other opposition groups (Batkivshchyna, UDAR) as the stereotypical anti-Russian party. Svoboda’s hero worship of Stepan Bandera enables the Crimean politicians to accuse not just this party, but the entire opposition, of fascist ideology.Anatoly Mogilev, der ja laut Wikipedia am 27. Februar von "pro-russischen Selbstverteidigungskräften" gegangen worden sein soll, hat die Gründung dieser Selbstverteidigungskräfte auf der Krim unterstützt.
After the withdrawal of parts of the restrictive laws of 16 January, and the resignation of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, on 30 January, several Russian organisations from Sevastopol issued a statement of plans to create a federal state of “Little Russia” (Malorossiya) composed of Crimea and south-eastern Ukraine. Activists from Sevastopol’s organisations also claimed the city’s right to secede in the event that the opposition "seized power by force" in Kyiv. Anatoly Mogilev, prime minister of the Crimean Autonomous Republic, expressed support for the creation of “people’s squads” that would not allow "extremists" who may cause ethnic conflict to enter ARC territory.
It was, therefore, a de facto attempt to legalise the actions of the so-called Crimean Cossacks targeting supporters of EuroMaidan. On 4 February the parliament of ARC established a working group, aimed at developing amendments to the Constitution of Crimea and preparing a petition to the Russian government asking for guarantees of the “defence” of Crimean autonomy.Schon am 4. Februar gab es innerhalb der Regierung der Krim eine Arbeitsgruppe, welche eine Petetion ausarbeitete um Russland um Schutz zu ersuchen. Lange vor der Reise Konstantinovs nach Moskau.
In response to these actions (after an application by Batkivshchyna’s deputy), the Security Service of Ukraine initiated an investigation into “preparation for the violation of the territorial integrity” of the state. Opposition politicians advocated 2 a dissolution of the ARC parliament (Batkivshchyna) and follow-up legal action against its MPs—the authors of the petition (Svoboda).Da hast du es. In Polen wurde schon öffentlich von einer Drohenden SEZESSION der Krim gesprochen als noch Niemand von einer Annexion sprach. Lange bevor Konstantinov nach Moskau gefahren ist. Lange bevor Putin eine Entscheidung getroffen hat. Lange bevor die Welt den Namen Girkin kannte.
The Likelihood of Crimean Secession. ARC’s authorities intend to use a moment of weakness of the government in Kyiv to increase their autonomy. For now, however, they remain loyal to the ruling Party of Regions, and the radical rhetoric of deputies of the ARC does not necessarily mean real separatist actions. It is difficult to assess how much the Crimean politicians' actions are coordinated with the Russian authorities, and the degree to which they are spontaneous.
Es war absehbar und vermeidbar gewesen. Die Schuld dafür trägt der jenige, der den Putsch in Kiew organisiert hat. Und der jenige, der ihn stillschweigend unterstützte.
The Crimean peninsula is strategically important for Russia because of the Black Sea Fleet base of the Russian Federation in Sevastopol. Crimea has a symbolic importance because of its role in the history of the Russian and Soviet empires. The Crimean question is, however, primarily a tool that can be used by the authorities in the Kremlin to put pressure on Kyiv. Russia's goal is not the secession of Crimea or others, but to keep the whole of Ukraine in the orbit of its influence.Die polnischen Experten waren sich zu diesem Zeitpunkt sogar sicher dass Russland keine Abspaltung der Krim verfolgte und die Ukraine als Ganzes in seinem Einflussbereich erhalten wollte. Also was hat Putin nochmal eingeräumt?
der Vollständigkeitshalber der Rest:
Stoking fears of secession may, however, affect the actions of President Viktor Yanukovych, and prevent him from making concessions to the opposition, a situation that would be beneficial from the point of view of the Kremlin. This would mean choosing a violent solution to the conflict with the opposition and EuroMaidan, and would, ultimately, block the Ukrainian authorities’ dialogue with the European Union.
However, further government concessions to the opposition cannot be ruled out, which would lead to the return of the Ukrainian government to talks with the EU about the Association Agreement. With such developments, the Russian authorities may support further loosening of Crimea’s ties with Ukraine, as well as initiatives to support separatism in other regions (for example, in Kharkiv). Russia may support a change in the status of the Crimean autonomy to increase its independence. This would be a signal “disciplining” the government in Kyiv and motivating it to abandon the process of reconciliation with the opposition and EuroMaidan.
A less likely, but still possible scenario is the secession of Sevastopol, Crimea or some oblasts of eastern Ukraine, which would be supported by the Russian authorities. Russia’s recognition of the independence of the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the Russian–Georgian war in 2008 could set a precedent here. In Georgia’s case, the loss of territories did not lead to the collapse of the then pro-Western government of the United National Movement and President Mikheil Saakashvili. In the Ukrainian case, an announcement of secession by the Crimea could, however, allow a change of power in Kyiv. However, Crimean separatists, supported by Russia, are only likely to attempt such a move if the Ukrainian government chooses to integrate with the European Union and reject the possibility of entering a Eurasian Union built by Russia.
